Comentari sobre la falsa modernització del estat espanyol publicat a The Guardian
The Guardian
In Barcelona it was legislators, not demonstrators, who were challenging the post-Franco settlement. Artur Mas, leader of the Catalan regional government called early elections for 25 November as politicians of all colours adapted to a game-changing demonstration for independence that brought hundreds of thousands of Catalans onto the city's streets earlier this month.
Mas has called for Catalonia to have its own state. The upcoming elections will be seen as a plebiscite on that, however much his nationalist Convergence and Union coalition wraps itself in euphemisms and refuses to actually use the word "independence". Once let out of its cage, the independence tiger may now prove impossible to put back – with polls showing a slim majority now in favour.
A sign of how serious the debate is was the reappearance of Spanish monarch King Juan Carlos in the political terrain. The man widely seen as the chief facilitator of modern Spanish democracy warned Catalan separatists against chasing "chimeras".
Angry voices on the far right make more frightening noises, reminding Spaniards that the constitution calls on the army to protect the integrity of Spain – and recalling a 1934 state of war declared by the republican government after a previous sovereignty grab by Catalans.
Rajoy, meanwhile, has to worry about Spain's recession-hit economy as it struggles with 25% unemployment. Further deterioration, worsened by government spending cuts, will see the economy shrink 3% over two years. But Spain's deficit, of nearly 9% last year, needs to be reduced as borrowing eats up ever-larger parts of the budget.
On Thursday his government will present yet another austerity budget, this time for 2013, together with a reform package designed to prepare Spain for a probable bailout by fellow eurozone countries. On Friday a report will reveal the size of the hole blown in Spain's banks by a housing bubble which left them awash with toxic real estate loans.
As the interest rates that markets demand for lending Spain money jumped again on Wednesday, perhaps egged on by Tuesday's violence, a bailout looked ever more necessary.
While Rajoy is expected to turn to Europe for help, Catalan nationalists also want Europe to ease them into a new relationship with Spain that could include anything from full independence within the European Union to a new federal or bilateral arrangement.
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